Week 7 Fantasy Rankings From the Prop Market: The Case for Maye

Quick answer: Jared Goff and Jordan Love are tied for the top passing-yards line at 279, and Jahmyr Gibbs leads running backs in rushing, rushing plus receiving and touchdown chance. The strongest start the rankings undersell is Drake Maye: eighth in passing yards, but first in passing plus rushing at 281.17 and first in rough fantasy points from his props. In PPR, Amon-Ra St. Brown is fourth in receiving yards but has the best touchdown chance of any receiver.

This kicks off a weekly series. Each week I'll go through the PropPicks rankings and pull out what the prop market is saying that a normal rankings list doesn't.

The rankings themselves aren't my opinion. They're the consensus sportsbook line for each player, averaged across books. Sportsbooks make money when they're right, so that line is about as honest a projection as you'll find.

The books have props up for most of the slate now. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington are on bye, and a few lines still aren't posted: Baltimore, Miami and both New York teams don't have quarterback yardage lines yet, for example. If a player you're looking for is missing, check back. The rankings update as lines come in.

Stronger starts this week

These are the players whose props make a better case than their spot in the main rankings.

Drake Maye (QB, NE). Eighth in passing yards at 247.5, but first in passing plus rushing at 281.17. His 29.17 rushing-yard line is the highest of any quarterback, with a 64% chance of 25 or more, and he has a 24% chance to score a touchdown himself. More on the math below. (Maye vs. Goff)

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET), in PPR. Fourth in receiving yards at 79.5, but second in receptions at 7.5, with an 80% chance of 6+ catches. His 58% chance to score is the best of any receiver this week. (St. Brown vs. Lamb)

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT). Eleventh in rushing yards at 63.5, but fifth in rushing plus receiving at 96. That's ahead of Kyren Williams (93.5), Jonathan Taylor (92.5) and Chuba Hubbard (87.5), who all have bigger rushing lines. His 59% touchdown chance beats Taylor's 55%, too. (Warren vs. Taylor)

Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI), in PPR. Eighth in receiving yards at 41.5, but fifth in receptions at 4.5, priced at -135. His 76% chance of 4+ catches beats Tucker Kraft (69%) and Travis Kelce (66%), who have the same 4.5 line at plus prices. Tanner McKee, who started last week with Jalen Hurts out with a blood clot, is the quarterback the books have lines on for Monday. (Goedert vs. Kraft)

The rushing quarterback math

Passing yards are worth 1 point per 25 in most leagues. Rushing yards are worth 1 per 10. That's why a passing-yards ranking undersells quarterbacks who run.

So I took each quarterback's props and turned them into rough fantasy points. That's the passing-yards line, the rushing-yards line, expected passing touchdowns from the milestone ladder, and the anytime touchdown chance. Here are the top five by that math:

QB	Pass yds rank	Pass yds	Rush yds	Exp. pass TDs	Rough pts
Drake Maye	8th	247.5	29.17	1.76	21.3
Brock Purdy	10th	242	19	1.92	20.8
Caleb Williams	9th	243.83	19.5	1.89	20.6
Jared Goff	1st	279	—	2.16	20.4
Jordan Love	2nd	279	—	2.09	20.2

Maye is 31.5 passing yards behind Goff and still comes out ahead. So do Brock Purdy and Caleb Williams.

Is it perfect? No. Goff and Love don't have rushing lines posted, so I counted zero for them, and a couple of scrambles closes some of that gap. It leaves out interceptions. And odds-implied chances include the book's margin, so they run a little high for everyone.

But the direction is clear. The three quarterbacks at the top of this list all run, and the passing-yards ranking has them eighth through tenth.

Weekly Rankings for QB passing + rushing yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 21, 1:51 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

Floor vs. ceiling at receiver

Puka Nacua's lines are up, and he has both. He has the top receiving-yards line at 95.5 with a 51% chance of 100+, and the top receptions line at 7.5 (-125) with an 82% chance of 6+ catches.

Behind him, it's the classic choice. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the ceiling: 91.5 yards, a 47% chance of 100+ and 29% of 125+. St. Brown is the floor: 12 fewer yards, but a 53% chance of 8+ catches to Smith-Njigba's 44%, and a 58% chance to score to his 45%.

Need a big game to win your matchup? Smith-Njigba has the higher ceiling. In PPR with a lead to protect, St. Brown has the higher floor.

Weekly Rankings for WR receptions, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 21, 1:51 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

Where the books disagree

A small yellow icon next to the odds means the books are split on that line. Several notable ones this week:

• St. Brown's 7.5 receptions sits at -109, with the books apart on it.
• Four of the top eight tight end reception lines (Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Colston Loveland) are flagged.
• Aaron Rodgers' and Kirk Cousins' 1.5 passing touchdowns are flagged too, at -104 and +100.

A split doesn't mean the line is wrong. It means the books are less sure than usual, so expect a wider range of outcomes.

Quarterbacks

Weekly Rankings for QB passing yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 21, 1:51 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Pass yds	2+ pass TDs
1	Jared Goff	DET	279	68%
2	Jordan Love	GB	279	66%
3	Matthew Stafford	LAR	273.5	62%
4	Dak Prescott	DAL	265.5	60%
5	Joe Burrow	CIN	260	64%

Goff and Love are tied at 279. Goff ranks first on the shorter Over price, and their ladders are nearly identical: 41% and 42% for 300+. The market expects both offenses to throw in Detroit.

Burrow is fifth in yards but third in touchdown chances, with a 64% chance of 2+ passing scores.

The name that stands out is further down. Patrick Mahomes is 18th of 24 at 220.17 passing yards, with a 40% chance of 2+ touchdown passes. That's the market's read on Sunday night in Seattle, not a verdict on Mahomes.

See the full QB rankings → Switch Stat to Passing + Rushing Yards to see the Maye case for yourself.

Running backs

Weekly Rankings for RB rushing yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 21, 1:51 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rush yds	Rush + rec	TD chance
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	94	138	77%
2	Derrick Henry	BAL	87	—	71%
3	Kenneth Walker III	KC	85.83	110.17	57%
4	Bijan Robinson	ATL	83.17	113.17	70%
5	Jonathan Taylor	IND	70.5	92.5	55%

Gibbs is in a tier of his own. He has the top line in rushing yards, rushing plus receiving and touchdown chance (77%).

The rushing-yards ranking hides receiving work, and Christian McCaffrey is this week's best example. He's 12th in rushing yards at 60.5, but third in rushing plus receiving at 111.5, first among running backs in receptions at 5.5, and second in touchdown chance at 73%.

Walker goes the other way. He's third in rushing, but his 57% touchdown chance is only 11th at the position.

See the full RB rankings → Switch Stat to Rushing + Receiving Yards to see where McCaffrey and Warren jump.

Wide receivers

Weekly Rankings for WR receiving yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 21, 1:51 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rec yds	Receptions	TD chance
1	Puka Nacua	LAR	95.5	7.5	57%
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	91.5	6.5	45%
3	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	82.17	7.5	44%
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	79.5	7.5	58%
5	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	79	6.5	48%

Christian Watson is the boom-or-bust profile just outside the top five. He's seventh in yards at 76.5 but 21st in receptions at 4.5, so the market expects his yards to come from a few big plays rather than volume. His 44% touchdown chance matches Lamb's.

Matthew Golden is three yards behind him at 73.5, so Green Bay has two receivers in the 70s. That's another sign the market expects points in Detroit.

See the full WR rankings →

Tight ends

Weekly Rankings for TE receiving yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 21, 1:51 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rec yds	Receptions	TD chance
1	Brock Bowers	LV	70	6	48%
2	George Kittle	SF	68.5	5.5	43%
3	Trey McBride	ARI	65.5	7.5	41%
4	Sam LaPorta	DET	50	5	36%
5	Tucker Kraft	GB	48.5	4.5	36%

Three tight ends are in their own tier this week, then there's a 15.5-yard drop to LaPorta. Within that tier, McBride is the PPR play: third in yards, but his 7.5 receptions line is the highest at the position, with a 77% chance of 6+ catches.

Kraft's line moved the most since Tuesday, up from 43 to 48.5 yards. He, LaPorta and Loveland are priced within four cents of each other to score (+174 to +178).

When it's this close, catches break the tie in PPR, and that's where Goedert comes in.

See the full TE rankings → Switch Stat to Receptions for the PPR order.

How to use this

• These are consensus lines across sportsbooks, captured Wednesday afternoon. They move with injury news and betting action, and the live rankings always show the current numbers.
• Milestone chances and prop lines sit alongside your Start/Sit Rating. They aren't inputs to it. (Start/Sit Ratings explains what is.)
• New to the percentage boxes? How to read milestone chances walks through them.
• Use this as one input. Check the injury report before kickoff, especially with Thursday's game locking in Maye, Williams, D'Andre Swift and Loveland early.

Next week I'll grade these stronger starts against what actually happened, hits and misses both. If the market's right, it should show up there.