Week 9 Fantasy Rankings From the Prop Market: Purdy and Daniels

Quick answer: Joe Burrow and Jordan Love have the top passing-yards lines, but Brock Purdy comes out first in rough fantasy points thanks to the best touchdown price on the board. Jayden Daniels is 19th in passing yards and fifth by that math. Jahmyr Gibbs is back near 100 rushing yards. And last week's receipts were mixed: three of four stronger starts paid off the way we said, but only one beat his yardage line.

Week 9 of the series. Same idea as always: go through the PropPicks rankings and pull out what the prop market is saying that a normal rankings list doesn't.

The rankings aren't my opinion. They're the consensus sportsbook line for each player, averaged across books. Sportsbooks make money when they're right, so that line is about as honest a projection as you'll find.

This one is going up Thursday, so the clock is short: Jaguars at Ravens kicks off tonight at 8:15 PM ET. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye, and every other team has lines posted, though a few touchdown prices aren't up yet (Josh Allen, James Cook, Javonte Williams and CeeDee Lamb among them). The rankings update as lines come in.

Stronger starts this week

These are the players whose props make a better case than their spot in the main rankings.

Brock Purdy (QB, SF). Seventh in passing yards at 249.5, but first in rough fantasy points from his props. He has a 2.5 passing touchdowns line at +133, the shortest price at that number, and a 74% chance of 2 or more, the best of any quarterback. (Purdy vs. Burrow)

Jayden Daniels (QB, WSH). Nineteenth in passing yards at 213.83, but fifth in rough fantasy points. His 37.5 rushing-yard line is the highest of any quarterback, and his 33% chance to score himself is also the best at the position. (Daniels vs. Maye)

D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI). Tenth in rushing yards at 66.17, but fifth in rushing plus receiving at 91.83, and his 67% touchdown chance is fifth among running backs. He plays Sunday night. (Swift vs. Cook)

Tyler Warren (TE, IND), in PPR. Twelfth in tight end receiving yards at 42, but third in receptions at 5.5, with an 81% chance of 4 or more catches. His 24% chance of 75+ yards ranks eighth among tight ends quoted at that number, ahead of his spot on the yardage list. (Warren vs. Kelce)

The rushing quarterback math

Same math as every week. Passing yards are worth 1 point per 25 in most leagues, rushing yards 1 per 10, and touchdowns count either way.

I took each quarterback's props and turned them into rough fantasy points: the passing-yards line, the rushing-yards line, expected passing touchdowns from the milestone ladder, and the anytime touchdown chance. Here are the top five:

QB	Pass yds rank	Pass yds	Rush yds	Exp. pass TDs	Rough pts
Brock Purdy	7th	249.5	15	2.34	22.3
Joe Burrow	1st	276.5	5.83	2.29	21.7
Patrick Mahomes	10th	246.17	11.5	2.25	21.2
Caleb Williams	6th	249.83	19.5	1.95	21.2
Jayden Daniels	19th	213.83	37.5	1.50	20.3

Purdy's edge is touchdowns, not legs this week. Daniels is the outlier: his passing line is 62.67 yards behind Burrow's, and his rushing and touchdown chances close almost all of it. Drake Maye is right behind at 20.2.

Is it perfect? No. Josh Allen doesn't have an anytime touchdown price posted yet, so his number reads low until it does. It leaves out interceptions. And odds-implied chances include the book's margin, so they run a little high for everyone.

Weekly Rankings for QB passing + rushing yards, consensus lines captured Thursday, Nov 5, 1:37 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

Tonight: Jaguars at Ravens

With Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley out, the Ravens are starting rookie Joe Fagnano tonight, per CBS Sports. The market has marked Baltimore down: Fagnano's 160.83 passing yards is the lowest line on the board, Zay Flowers dropped from 77 receiving yards last week to 48.83, and Derrick Henry from 82.5 rushing yards to 67.83.

If you have Ravens in lineups, that's the market telling you to temper expectations. Lock decisions on this game before 8:15 PM ET.

Ceiling check: Jonathan Taylor

Taylor is 12th in rushing yards at 62.5. His ladder says the line undersells his upside.

His 15% chance of 125+ yards ties for fifth at the position, and his 9% chance of 150+ is fourth, behind only Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III. That's a boom-or-bust profile: a modest middle with a real shot at a big day. Good for a tournament or when you're a big underdog in your matchup.

What moved since last week

• Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams both jumped about 21 passing yards, to 246.17 and 249.83.
• Jahmyr Gibbs went from 85.83 to 99.17 rushing yards, and his 81% touchdown chance leads every running back.
• Colston Loveland climbed from 43.17 to 53.17 receiving yards, and Tee Higgins from 65.5 to 77.83.
• Josh Jacobs fell from 57.83 to 43.5 rushing yards.

Where the books disagree

A small yellow icon next to the odds means the books are split on that line. Several notable ones this week:

• Puka Nacua's 8.17 receptions and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 7.17 are both flagged.
• CeeDee Lamb's 6.5 receptions and Trey McBride's 7.17 are flagged.
• Mahomes' and Jared Goff's 2.17 passing touchdowns are both flagged. The books can't agree whether their line is 1.5 or 2.5.

A split doesn't mean the line is wrong. It means the books are less sure than usual, so expect a wider range of outcomes.

Quarterbacks

Weekly Rankings for QB passing yards, consensus lines captured Thursday, Nov 5, 1:37 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Pass yds	2+ pass TDs
1	Joe Burrow	CIN	276.5	73%
2	Jordan Love	GB	275.5	54%
3	Jared Goff	DET	260.83	69%
4	Dak Prescott	DAL	258.5	70%
5	Matthew Stafford	LAR	254.5	63%

Burrow and Love are a yard apart in passing, but not in touchdowns. Burrow has a 73% chance of 2+ touchdown passes to Love's 54%.

See the full QB rankings → Switch Stat to Passing Touchdowns to see Purdy on top.

Running backs

Weekly Rankings for RB rushing yards, consensus lines captured Thursday, Nov 5, 1:37 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rush yds	Rush + rec	TD chance
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	99.17	133.17	81%
2	Bijan Robinson	ATL	91.83	121.83	72%
3	Kenneth Walker III	KC	91.5	113.17	68%
4	James Cook III	BUF	79.5	97.83	—
5	Javonte Williams	DAL	71.5	84.83	—

Gibbs leads in rushing, rushing plus receiving and touchdown chance, and his 54% chance of 100+ rushing yards is the best on the board.

Christian McCaffrey is 14th in rushing yards at 61, but his 74% touchdown chance is second only to Gibbs. And Chase Brown is 19th in rushing yards but second in running back receptions at 3.83 with a 65% chance to score, a useful PPR profile.

See the full RB rankings → Switch Stat to Rushing + Receiving Yards to see Swift jump.

Wide receivers

Weekly Rankings for WR receiving yards, consensus lines captured Thursday, Nov 5, 1:37 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rec yds	Receptions	TD chance
1	Puka Nacua	LAR	93.17	8.17	58%
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	93.17	7.17	57%
3	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	79.83	6.5	—
4	Drake London	ATL	79.5	5.5	45%
5	Tee Higgins	CIN	77.83	5.5	47%

Nacua and Smith-Njigba are tied at 93.17 yards and nearly tied everywhere else. Nacua gets the edge in PPR: 8.17 receptions to 7.17, and a 62% chance of 8+ catches to Smith-Njigba's 48%.

Behind them there's a 13-yard drop, then five receivers between 76.83 and 79.83.

See the full WR rankings → Switch Stat to Receptions for the PPR order.

Tight ends

Weekly Rankings for TE receiving yards, consensus lines captured Thursday, Nov 5, 1:37 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rec yds	Receptions	TD chance
1	Brock Bowers	LV	76.17	6.5	47%
2	Trey McBride	ARI	59.83	7.17	34%
3	Colston Loveland	CHI	53.17	5.17	38%
4	Tucker Kraft	GB	46.83	4.5	32%
5	Travis Kelce	KC	46.17	4.5	41%

Bowers is 16.34 yards clear of the next tight end, with a 57% chance of 75+. McBride is the PPR play with the top receptions line at 7.17.

George Kittle has the best touchdown chance at the position (53%), but his yardage line isn't up yet.

See the full TE rankings → Switch Stat to Receptions for the PPR order.

Receipts: last week's stronger starts

Every week I grade the previous week's stronger starts against what actually happened. Here's Week 8, and it was a mixed one:

Player	Week 8 line	Result
Trevor Lawrence	247 pass yds, 1.5 pass TDs (-192)	210 pass yds, 3 TD passes
Josh Jacobs	57.83 rush yds, 58% TD chance	39 rush yds, 2 touchdowns
Parker Washington	66.17 rec yds, 4.5 receptions	1 catch, 16 yds
Tucker Kraft	42.17 rec yds, 37% TD chance	6 catches, 53 yds, 1 touchdown

Here's the honest scoring. Three of the four paid off for the reason we picked them: Lawrence threw three touchdowns, Jacobs scored twice, and Kraft caught a touchdown. But only Kraft beat his yardage line. Lawrence was pulled early in a 42-7 blowout, and that same blowout left Washington with one catch.

Washington is a plain miss. Over two weeks, that's seven of eight on the angle and five of eight on the yardage lines. I'll keep both counts.

How to use this

• These are consensus lines across sportsbooks, captured Thursday afternoon. They move with injury news and betting action, and the live rankings always show the current numbers.
• Milestone chances and prop lines sit alongside your Start/Sit Rating. They aren't inputs to it. (Start/Sit Ratings explains what is.)
• New to the percentage boxes? How to read milestone chances walks through them.
• Use this as one input. Check the injury report before kickoff, and set anything from tonight's Jaguars at Ravens game first.

Back next week with the Week 9 receipts.