Week 8 Fantasy Rankings From the Prop Market: The Allen Gap

Quick answer: Joe Burrow has the top passing-yards line at 266, but Josh Allen is fifth and still projects about four fantasy points clear of every other quarterback once you count his legs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in a tier of his own at receiver, 21.33 yards ahead of anyone else. The stronger starts the rankings undersell: Trevor Lawrence, Josh Jacobs, Parker Washington and Tucker Kraft. And all four of last week's stronger starts cleared their lines.

Week 8 of the series. Same idea as last week: go through the PropPicks rankings and pull out what the prop market is saying that a normal rankings list doesn't.

The rankings aren't my opinion. They're the consensus sportsbook line for each player, averaged across books. Sportsbooks make money when they're right, so that line is about as honest a projection as you'll find.

Houston, New Orleans, the Giants and San Francisco are on bye. Every other team has at least touchdown odds posted, but a few yardage lines aren't up yet, including Dallas, the Rams, Pittsburgh and both teams in Sunday night's Eagles at Commanders game. If a player you're looking for is missing, check back. The rankings update as lines come in.

Stronger starts this week

These are the players whose props make a better case than their spot in the main rankings.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX). Sixth in passing yards at 247, but second in rough fantasy points from his props. His 1.5 passing touchdowns line is priced at -192, the shortest of any quarterback at that number, with a 66% chance of 2 or more. He adds 11 rushing yards and a 24% chance to score himself. (Lawrence vs. Goff)

Josh Jacobs (RB, GB). Eleventh in rushing yards at 57.83, but his line is up 15.33 yards from last week, the biggest jump of any running back. His 58% touchdown chance is eighth at the position, ahead of Bucky Irving and Jonathan Taylor (57% each), who both have bigger rushing lines. He plays Thursday night. (Jacobs vs. Taylor)

Parker Washington (WR, JAX). Ninth in receiving yards at 66.17, but his 47% chance to score is sixth among receivers, ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown (45%). His 4.5 receptions line is priced at -140, a 75% chance of 4 or more catches. (Washington vs. Higgins)

Tucker Kraft (TE, GB). Fifth in receiving yards at 42.17, but his 37% chance to score is the best of any tight end with a yardage line posted. Only Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are priced shorter, and their yardage lines aren't up yet. Kraft also plays Thursday night. (Kraft vs. LaPorta)

The rushing quarterback math

Same math as last week. Passing yards are worth 1 point per 25 in most leagues, rushing yards 1 per 10, so a passing-yards ranking undersells quarterbacks who run.

I took each quarterback's props and turned them into rough fantasy points: the passing-yards line, the rushing-yards line, expected passing touchdowns from the milestone ladder, and the anytime touchdown chance. Here are the top five:

QB	Pass yds rank	Pass yds	Rush yds	Exp. pass TDs	Rough pts
Josh Allen	5th	249.5	36.5	1.86	24.9
Trevor Lawrence	6th	247	11	2.11	20.9
Drake Maye	10th	232.5	24.5	1.87	20.7
Joe Burrow	1st	266	—	2.25	20.4
Lamar Jackson	7th	237	26	1.66	20.3

Allen's gap is the story. He has the top rushing line of any quarterback at 36.5, and a 63% chance to score a touchdown himself. The next-best quarterback is Jayden Daniels at 35%.

That 63% is worth almost four points on its own. It's why Allen is fifth in passing yards and four points clear on this list.

Maye is in the top three again, too, for the second week running.

Is it perfect? No. Burrow doesn't have a rushing line posted, so I counted zero there. It leaves out interceptions. And odds-implied chances include the book's margin, so they run a little high for everyone.

Weekly Rankings for QB passing + rushing yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 28, 1:55 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

Ceiling check: Ja'Marr Chase

Chase is sixth in receiving yards at 76.5, a whole tier below Smith-Njigba. His ladder says he has more upside than that line shows.

His 62% chance of 75+ yards is second only to Smith-Njigba's 78% among receivers with a 75+ quote. His 35% chance of 100+ ties Justin Jefferson for second. And his 6.5 receptions line at -138 is second at the position.

So the line puts him sixth, but the ladder puts him second. If you need a big week to win your matchup, that's the receiver I'd want after Smith-Njigba.

What moved since last week

Different matchups move lines every week, so a drop isn't always a downgrade. A few moves are worth knowing:

• Josh Jacobs jumped from 42.5 to 57.83 rushing yards.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba went from 91.5 to 98.83 receiving yards, and now leads the position by more than 21 yards.
• A.J. Brown dropped from 67.17 to 56.5 receiving yards, and Matthew Golden from 73.5 to 63.5.
• Jared Goff and Jordan Love both came down from 279 to the low 260s in passing yards. Burrow passed them both at 266.

Where the books disagree

A small yellow icon next to the odds means the books are split on that line. Several notable ones this week:

• Smith-Njigba's 7.5 receptions sits at +103, with the books apart on it.
• Jahmyr Gibbs' 4.5 receptions is at even money (+100) and flagged.
• Justin Jefferson's 5.83 receptions and T.J. Hockenson's 4.5 are both flagged.
• Lamar Jackson's 1.5 passing touchdowns is flagged at -104.

A split doesn't mean the line is wrong. It means the books are less sure than usual, so expect a wider range of outcomes.

Quarterbacks

Weekly Rankings for QB passing yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 28, 1:55 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Pass yds	2+ pass TDs
1	Joe Burrow	CIN	266	71%
2	Jared Goff	DET	263.17	57%
3	Jordan Love	GB	261.17	62%
4	Bryce Young	CAR	253.83	52%
5	Josh Allen	BUF	249.5	57%

Burrow is the only quarterback with a 2.5 passing touchdowns line this week. Even at +154, that works out to a 71% chance of 2 or more.

The top four are within about 12 yards of each other, so the passing-yards order alone doesn't separate them much. The touchdown and rushing numbers do.

See the full QB rankings → Switch Stat to Passing + Rushing Yards to see Allen jump to first.

Running backs

Weekly Rankings for RB rushing yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 28, 1:55 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rush yds	Rush + rec	TD chance
1	James Cook III	BUF	86	101	62%
2	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	85.83	125.17	73%
3	Kenneth Walker III	KC	83.5	106.5	59%
4	Derrick Henry	BAL	82.5	93.5	70%
5	Bucky Irving	TB	70.5	89.5	57%

The top four are within 3.5 rushing yards of each other. The other props separate them.

Gibbs is the clear first once you add receiving. His rushing plus receiving line is 125.17, almost 19 yards ahead of Walker, and he has the top receptions line at the position. Henry's 70% touchdown chance is second in this group, behind Gibbs at 73%.

The highest touchdown chance at the position belongs to Javonte Williams at 74%. Dallas' yardage lines aren't posted yet, so he's not in this table.

See the full RB rankings → Switch Stat to Rushing + Receiving Yards to see Gibbs pull away.

Wide receivers

Weekly Rankings for WR receiving yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 28, 1:55 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rec yds	Receptions	TD chance
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	98.83	7.5	53%
2	Justin Jefferson	MIN	77.5	5.83	39%
3	Drake London	ATL	77.5	6.5	41%
4	Zay Flowers	BAL	77	5.5	40%
5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	76.5	6.5	45%

Smith-Njigba is the receiver of the week by a wide margin. He has a 54% chance of 100+ yards, and no one else is above 35%. He also has the top receptions line at 7.5.

Behind him, the next five receivers are packed within one yard, 76.5 to 77.5. When the yardage lines are that close, the other props make the call. St. Brown and Chase both have a 6.5 receptions line and better touchdown chances than the three receivers ranked above them.

See the full WR rankings → Switch Stat to Receptions for the PPR order.

Tight ends

Weekly Rankings for TE receiving yards, consensus lines captured Wednesday, Oct 28, 1:55 PM ET. Lines move during the week.

#	Player	Team	Rec yds	Receptions	TD chance
1	Sam LaPorta	DET	50.17	4.5	31%
2	Travis Kelce	KC	48.5	4.5	32%
3	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	46.5	3.5	33%
4	Colston Loveland	CHI	43.17	4.5	31%
5	Tucker Kraft	GB	42.17	4.5	37%

Eight yards separate first from fifth, so this is a week to pick tight ends on the other props.

In PPR, LaPorta's 4.5 receptions line is priced shortest of the group at -127, a 74% chance of 4 or more catches. For touchdowns, it's Kraft.

See the full TE rankings → Switch Stat to Receptions for the PPR order.

Receipts: last week's stronger starts

Every week I'll grade the previous week's stronger starts against what actually happened. Here's Week 7:

Player	Week 7 line	Result
Drake Maye	247.5 pass yds, 29.17 rush yds	321 pass yds, 2 TD passes, 26 rush yds, 1 rushing TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown	7.5 receptions, 79.5 rec yds	9 catches, 153 yds
Jaylen Warren	96 rush + rec yds	101 rush yds, 36 rec yds
Dallas Goedert	4.5 receptions, 41.5 rec yds	5 catches, 48 yds

All four cleared their main lines. Maye was the headliner, with three total touchdowns and 321 passing yards. His rushing came in just under his line at 26, and he threw an interception.

St. Brown had his best game of the season. Warren went over 100 rushing yards. Goedert was the quiet one: he cleared both of his lines, but 5 catches for 48 yards is a floor game, which is what we called it.

One week is a tiny sample. Some weeks these will miss, and I'll show those too.

How to use this

• These are consensus lines across sportsbooks, captured Wednesday afternoon. They move with injury news and betting action, and the live rankings always show the current numbers.
• Milestone chances and prop lines sit alongside your Start/Sit Rating. They aren't inputs to it. (Start/Sit Ratings explains what is.)
• New to the percentage boxes? How to read milestone chances walks through them.
• Use this as one input. Check the injury report before kickoff, especially with Thursday's Panthers at Packers game locking in Jacobs, Kraft and Bryce Young early.

Back next week with the Week 8 receipts.